Analysis of Bangladesh Army’s Role in US-Backed Operations in Arakan

 Analysis of Bangladesh Army’s Role in US-Backed Operations in Arakan

Flag of AA Arakan Army, Bangladesh, US, China

Introduction

Rakhine State, historically known as Arakan, is a region marked by ethnic diversity, resource wealth, and protracted conflict, situated in western Myanmar. The Arakan people, predominantly Buddhist Rakhine, alongside the Muslim Rohingya minority, have faced systemic marginalization under Myanmar’s military junta, which, as of April 2025, retains control over only three townships. The Arakan Army (AA), a powerful ethnic militia, has captured 15 of 18 townships, positioning itself as a de facto governing authority through its political wing, the United League of Arakan (ULA). Recent reports, notably from Northeast News on April 16, 2025, suggest a significant development: the Bangladesh Army is likely leading US-backed clandestine operations in Rakhine State, focusing on logistical and tactical support for a coalition including the AA and Chin National Front (CNF). This survey note explores the strategic implications, geopolitical dynamics, and potential impacts on the Arakan people, drawing on recent analyses and global media insights.

Background and Context

Rakhine State’s history is marked by ethnic tensions and armed conflict, exacerbated by the 2017 military crackdown that drove over 700,000 Rohingya(Myanmar government calls them ‘Bengali’ immigrants) into Bangladesh. The AA, founded in 2009, has intensified operations since before the 2021 Myanmar coup, controlling significant territory by December 2024, including the entire border with Bangladesh (Asia Times). The humanitarian situation is dire, with over 380,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) since November 2023 and warnings of looming famine affecting up to two million, as reported by the UNDP in November 2024 (UNDP).

US-Bangladesh Collaboration: Operational Details

Research suggests the Bangladesh Army’s involvement is non-combatant, focusing on logistics and supplies for the AA and CNF, as confirmed by Northeast News on April 16, 2025. At least three divisions (10th, 17th, and 24th) are likely deployed, with a massive facility near Teknaf for non-lethal supplies like rations and an expanded Cox’s Bazar airport being developed into a drone base for Turkish unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). This aligns with a US strategy, evidenced by visits from US officials like Susan Stevenson and Lieutenant General Joel ‘JB’ Vowell, who met with Bangladesh Army Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman in March 2025 (Northeast News). Clandestine meetings with AA and CNF representatives in Dhaka, housed in safe houses, indicate a cohesive strategy development, adding to the controversy due to the secretive nature.

Strategic Objectives and Rohingya Repatriation

The evidence leans toward a broader strategy including an “aid corridor” for repatriating approximately 80,000 Rohingya to Buthidaung and Maungdaw, contingent on military success, as part of Bangladesh’s interim government led by Muhammad Yunus’s efforts, as noted in the same Northeast News report. This initiative, led by National Security Adviser Khalilur Rahman, aims to address the Rohingya crisis straining Bangladesh, but faces challenges given ethnic tensions, particularly with efforts to include the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) following the arrest of its chief Ataullah in Narayanganj in March 2025 (The New York Times). ARSA’s historical opposition to the AA and its designation as a terrorist group by Myanmar and Malaysia complicate integration efforts, with ongoing challenges in fostering trust and cooperation among communities adding to the complexity (VOA).

Geopolitical Dynamics: China’s Counter-Influence

China’s involvement, detailed in Subir Bhaumik’s April 17, 2025, op-ed, shows open support for the Myanmar junta, brokering a ceasefire with the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) for withdrawal from Lashio, reflecting desperation to protect investments like the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor and Kyaukphyu deep-seaport (Eurasia Review). The AA’s avoidance of attacking Chinese projects suggests pragmatism, but China’s pressure on rebel groups like KIA and AA, who refused ceasefires before the March 28, 2025, earthquake, indicates ongoing tension. This US-China rivalry, with Bangladesh’s interim government aligning with the US to deny China land-to-sea access, risks escalating into proxy warfare, a sensitive and debated issue given regional stability concerns.

Implications for the Arakan People

For the Arakan people, the US-Bangladesh synergy offers potential for increased autonomy, with the AA’s dominance enabling governance through the APRG, covering judiciary and public health, as noted in Asia Times (Asia Times). However, risks include turning Rakhine into a proxy war theater, with technological escalation via UAVs and potential direct conflict involving Bangladesh. The humanitarian crisis, marked by displacement and famine, highlights the urgent need for stability. However, ethnic tensions, particularly involving the Rohingya community, persist as a significant challenge, with trust issues among various groups noted by 28 Rohingya organizations in December 2024 (VOA).

Regional and International Reactions

India and Bangladesh express security concerns, with India worried about northeastern states and connectivity projects like the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project, while Bangladesh fears Rohingya influx, as per ETV Bharat on January 3, 2025 (ETV Bharat). The US’s recognition of the National Unity Government (NUG) and plans for elections by the junta add to the political complexity, with fears of violence, as per CFR’s Global Conflict Tracker in March 2025 (CFR).

Humanitarian and Political Challenges

The humanitarian crisis, with landmine casualties and sexual violence documented by Human Rights Watch in January 2025, highlights the urgency of addressing immediate needs (Human Rights Watch). Political solutions require inclusive governance, with the AA’s evolving stance toward Rohingya offering hope, but trust-building and international oversight, as proposed by Muhammad Yunus, are essential for sustainable repatriation (The Daily Star).

Conclusion

The Bangladesh Army’s role in US-backed operations in Rakhine State, focusing on logistics and potential Rohingya repatriation, suggests a transformative moment for the Arakan people, offering autonomy but risking escalation. China’s counter-efforts and the humanitarian crisis complicate the scenario, necessitating diplomatic engagement for stability and inclusive governance.

The Arakan-American synergy, while promising, must navigate ethnic tensions and regional rivalries to realize peace and self-determination.

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Key Citations

• Long Title: Arakan Army’s triumph ripples through China, India, Bangladesh (Asia Times)
• Long Title: Bangladesh Army to lead US-backed operations in Rakhine State (Northeast News)
• Long Title: Chinese Covert Intervention in Myanmar Amidst Proxy War with US (Eurasia Review)
• Long Title: Armed Rohingya Group’s Leader Arrested in Bangladesh (The New York Times)
• Long Title: Looming famine in Rakhine signals wider crisis in Myanmar (UNDP)
• Long Title: World Report 2025 detailing Myanmar human rights issues (Human Rights Watch)
• Long Title: Displacement Overview as of March 31, 2025 in Myanmar (UNHCR)
• Long Title: The Rise Of Arakan Army and implications for India, Northeast Security (ETV Bharat)
• Long Title: As Arakan Army Gains Ground in Myanmar, Peace Remains Elusive ([VOA]([invalid url, do not cite]))
• Long Title: Bangladesh New Rohingya Policy Considerations for repatriation (The Daily Star)
• Long Title: Global Conflict Tracker on Rohingya crisis and Myanmar conflict (CFR)